It's notable that the stock market in 2019 has not suffered a 10% correction on worries about the China trade confrontation, the manufacturing slump or concerns about the U.S. political situation — three bad-news narratives currently haunting markets. But look at this: The three major stock market drops in the past year were all related to the Federal Reserve Board's actions. Since the Fed backed off its forecast for rising rates and inflation in January, consumer spending and income have been about as strong as they have ever been in post-War American history!
For months now, the actions of the Federal Reserve, as it works to extend the economic expansion into 2020, have driven the stock market — both up and down. The point is, it's always been wise not to get emotional about the news affecting markets that may seem so dismal at any bleak moment in history. This is the longest business cycle in modern history, and it is sustainable as long as the Fed does not make a policy mistake, which is always possible.
A Fed mistake in December of 2018 caused the inversion of the yield curve!
Fortunately, the Fed quickly recognized its mistake and has eased rates twice by a quarter-point since then.
The Fed is what matters most in the current situation.
This article was written by a veteran financial journalist. While these are sources we believe to be reliable, the information is not intended to be used as financial or tax advice without consulting a professional about your personal situation. Tax laws are subject to change. Indices are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Investments with higher return potential carry greater risk for loss. No one can predict the future of the stock market or any investment, and past performance is never a guarantee of your future results. |